A Decade of Games Will Make You Better Understand the NHL
See behind data to follow the NHL trends before COVID-19
11,872 games played and 207 millions spectators over 10 years deliver some interesting insights on one of the favorite sports league in North America, the National Hockey League (NHL).
Back in 2013, Josh Barr published an article in NHL to Seattle with a data visualization (based on ESPN statistics) regrouping NHL teams’ average attendances over a year and the variations versus the previous season. Starting from there, I thought that it would be interesting to enlarge the period of time to 10 seasons in order to identify bigger trends.
Showing how data change over time on a large period, not just by comparing 2 seasons, helps shape a real data story and raise interest from the readers with an impactful figure, 10!
Even though the dataset used for my analysis is coming from ESPN, a trustful, well-recognized source, I could still question their methodology for collecting the data as no process-related information is provided in their reports. However, I can assume that the data released by the League -or NHL teams- should be pretty accurate given ticketing is both a quantitative component and a key element to the professional sports business.
One limitation I wanted to mention before getting into the analysis is that no data regarding teams’ performances or games’ levels are included. They could have been part of the story — as we could imagine a direct connection between the quality of the show and the level of attendance, but they are not included in the data set used for this Capstone project.
In addition to extending the analysis period to 10 seasons, I also decided to explore not only the average attendances for each year, but also the global attendances the NHL is able to generate for the whole period. Moreover, I added a new dimension with the Division filter, which divides the league into 4 segments : Pacific, Central, Atlantic and Metropolitan. I used a map in introduction to give the best understanding possible for my audience on how the NHL is organized.
I used the same logos and color coding as in this visualization through all the analysis, in order to consistently link Teams and Divisions together.
I thought that an animated story with Flourish would be optimal to visually explain changes over time.
The Bar Chart Race based on cumulated attendances by team and filterable by division is ideal to dynamically present the weight of each team through the years.
The Chicago Blackhawks (Central) and the Montreal Canadiens (Atlantic) are the top 2 teams in terms of attendance over the past decade. 4 teams out of the top 6 teams belong to the Atlantic Division.
The Column Chart with Filter allows to get a quick overview of the NHL global attendance and how it is distributed between each division. I added a specific comment to explain the unusual drop of spectators during the 2012–13 season (NHL Lockout).
The NHL global attendance was very stable (21–22 millions spectators) over the past 10 years if we exclude 2012–13. This season saw a large decrease of attendees (12.7M) due to a lockout : only 24 home games were played (vs 41 in a normal configuration). The addition of a new franchise, the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017, helped the league to pass the 22 millions mark. The overall attendance is well balanced between the 4 Divisions.
After giving the overview on the global attendance figures, I wanted to dig in more on the average attendance level, which was the data used in the initial visualization. The Line Chart is a very effective way to display changes over time, I kept the filters for the Division and a global view (NHL).
Before the lockout (2013–14), the NHL was trending up with an average attendance of 17,720 per game. Since then, it decreased a bit around 17,500 per game, mainly due to a drop of spectators in the Atlantic Division. The Pacific (3rd) and Metropolitan (4th) Divisions have been increasing for the past 4 seasons. In 2018–19, the Central Division (1st) leapfrogged the Atlantic Division (2nd) for the first time in the past 10 years.
I continued with an Hans Rosling Chart, based on average attendance, attendance rate and arena capacity (100% = total available seats), which highlights the evolution of each team/division through the years.
The vast majority of teams evolve around a core whose characteristics are a 98% attendance rate and an 18,000 average attendance. Note that attendance rates can score above 100% as ESPN stats include both seating and standing spectators.
After the dynamic sequence of the Hans Rosling Chart, I thought it would be interesting to get a snapshot of the overall attractiveness of teams and divisions over the past 10 years.
8 franchises are sold out every year, 4 of them belong to the Atlantic Division (Detroit, Toronto, Buffalo, Boston). The Chicago Blackhawks have the best overall performance. The Vegas Golden Knights lead the attendance rate with 105%.
To conclude, I decided to end the analysis with a sequence of Line Chart Races, which are both explanatory and fun!
Before the lockout (2012–13), the Chicago Blackhawks and the Montreal Canadiens are above the pack in terms of average attendance with more than 21,000 spectators per game. The 2012–13 season shook for a while the established order pre-lockout : 2 franchises from the Pacific Division were the new leaders. In the post-lockout seasons, the ranking got back to normal with Chicago and Montreal leading the pack again. For the first time since 2011–12, Philadelphia exceeded in 2018–2019 20,000 spectators per game and got the 3rd place behind Chicago and Montreal. Vegas had an immediate impact upon arrival in the league with an 18,318 average per game.
Globally, the Atlantic Division is the most dominant. Every team from the Top 5 is located in the North East, highlighting a real hockey culture in this (cold) area.
On a division level, here is what we can see :
- The Pacific Division is stable and each team is close to each other (17,000 to 18,500 range per game) apart from Arizona with 14,000 spectators per game.
- The Central Division has mitigated results. 4 teams are trending up (Chicago, Dallas, Nashville, Colorado) and 3 teams are trending down (Minnesota, St. Louis, Winnipeg).
- The Atlantic Division registered high attendances over the years but in the past few seasons, several teams (Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa and Florida) show a negative trend.
- The Metropolitan Division regroups several high audience teams with Philadelphia, Pittsburg and Washington, but only 3 teams (Philadelphia, Carolina and NY Islanders) are trending up the past seasons.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the NHL was registering a slight decrease of average attendance each year for the past 4 seasons, mainly due to a significative drop of spectators in the Atlantic Division. However, with the addition of the new franchise, the Vegas Golden Knights, the last 2 seasons were the best seasons the league ever had in the last decade, in terms of total attendance.
The whole animated data story is available on Flourish, enjoy!
